10 Truths about Brexit - including the border between UK and Ireland - in event of a No Deal Brexit

Many of my previous predictions have turned out to be correct as of September 2018: for example no immediate economic meltdown, fall in currency leads to rise in exports and so on.  

Here is a common sense view of what is likely to happen in the event that the EU and UK fail to achieve an agreement before the UK leaves the EU.  

1. The pound will fall further against the Euro

This will make all exports of goods and services even more affordable for other nations to buy, and will make imports even more expensive.  If the pound falls a further 10% post Brexit, then the total fall since the vote to leave will be 25%.

2. EU import taxes will be almost irrelevant to UK exports

Let us take an average tax of 5% on any UK goods imported into the EU from the UK, and the other way round.  How much impact would that actually have when you take the new exchange rate into account?

British goods will be net 20% cheaper for French or German people to buy than before.  That's huge by any measure.

French and German goods will be net 30% more expensive for British people to buy.  Even more significant.

Net impact: far greater on companies exporting to the UK.  In any case, the rest of the world takes more UK goods than the EU, and the EU is rapidly falling as an export destination.

Read more: 10 Truths about Brexit - including the border between UK and Ireland - in event of a No Deal Brexit

 

The Truth about President Trump's longer term impact on America, global politics, news reporting, future of democracy itself. Why he fits predictions

President Trump is very typical of a new generation of "single-issues politicians", rising up around the world as I predicted years ago

He thrives on the elusive powers of 24 hours a day media-streaming of his thoughts and feelings, taps into populist emotions, connects with the passions of ordinary people, expresses very well their fears for their own future, as well as their dreams for their own children.

A part of this has been the powerful slogan: "Make America Great Again", which feeds into deep unease about the declining role, influence and economic powers of America as a proportion of the whole world.  This in turn is being driven by the very long term, irresistible and relentless rise in emerging nations, where 85% of humanity already live.

Leaving aside whatever you may feel about President Trump's official, longer term policies, the truth is that his day to day communications and actions are massively different from what is normally expected in developed nations of their own Presidents or Prime Ministers, and are much more typical in some ways of patterns that we tend to see amongst semi-dictators in emerging markets....

Read more: The Truth about President Trump's longer term impact on America, global politics, news reporting, future of democracy itself. Why he fits predictions

   

New edition of The Future of Almost Everything book - Life in 2100? How can we begin to visualise very long term trends?

My job is to live in the future and to see tomorrow as history.

I'm working on a new edition of The Future of Almost Everything book - which will contain a chapter on life in 2100, looking at key trends for the next 20 years, in the light of what happened from 2090 to 2100...

Forecasting 80 years ahead might seem an impossible thing to do.

So what happens if you live for a while in 2100 and return to tell the story, to make comparisons?  In what ways are you most "culture shocked" and why?

It is easy to assume that life will continue to change at frenetic pace, and that many things will be almost unrecognisable by 2100, but will that really turn out to be true?

Winston Churchill once said that if you want to understand the future, look at history.

80 years ago, in 1948 was in many ways a very different world - with rapid reconstruction in Europe after the Second World War. Yet more things have endured than we might think....

Read more: New edition of The Future of Almost Everything book - Life in 2100? How can we begin to visualise very long term trends?

   

AGILE Retail - stay ahead your customers! Future Retail - global trends and impact on customer decisions, retail marketing, retail supply chains

How to create magic for customers with Agile Leadership, Agile processes and Agile Innovation. Patrick Dixon, keynote speaker, at the Agile Business Conference. Seizing opportunities and managing risks. How to guard against institutional blindness. Key global trends impacting the economy, demographics, tribal marketing, global supply chains and increasing scale in retailing as well as future of manufacturing. Future of marketing, management and motivation. Big Data and Little Data - impact on retailing. Location-triggered marketing. Impact of sustainability and ethical issues on retail and consumer decisions.

Read more: AGILE Retail - stay ahead your customers! Future Retail - global trends and impact on customer decisions, retail marketing, retail supply chains

   

Future Manufacturing 4.0: personal guided tour of Toyota factory assembly line by Futurist Patrick Dixon, looking at innovation, robotics, AI, Big Data, just-in-time, ultra lean efficiency - manufacturing keynote speaker

Manufacturing innovation trends - how manufacturing is changing. Lessons from Toyota assembly lines for fork lift trucks. How to optimise factory production with just-in-time and hundreds of small enhancements with huge total impact, using predictive analytics and Big Data. How to harness human genius in the workforce to make things faster and more reliably. Key manufacturing trends presented by Futurist keynote speaker Patrick Dixon - tour of Toyota factory site in Mjölby, Sweden.

Read more: Future Manufacturing 4.0: personal guided tour of Toyota factory assembly line by Futurist Patrick Dixon, looking at innovation, robotics, AI, Big Data, just-in-time, ultra lean efficiency - manufacturing keynote speaker

   

Future of Artificial Intelligence. How AI will change jobs, manufacturing and health. Impact of AI on marketing, investment, banking, insurance, politics, government, warfare, consumer choices and how people think. Artificial Intelligence Keynote Speaker

Artificial Intelligence is about a world dominated by smart machines, more intelligent than humans, becoming more powerful every day. But how will that AI power be used? Is AI a force for good or for evil?  Will robots ever achieve full human consciousness, or "real" intelligence, or will they just remain smart machines?

Will Artificial Intelligence create massive unemployment, combined with Robotics? Will society become controlled by AI systems?

Here is the truth in a lengthy feature about Artificial Intelligence in the auto industry, health care AI, warfare AI, impact of AI on banking, investments, insurance, retail, surveillance and security, workplace and so on. This is based on keynotes on the future of Artificial Intelligence and related issues, across the world.

Read more: Future of Artificial Intelligence. How AI will change jobs, manufacturing and health. Impact of AI on marketing, investment, banking, insurance, politics, government, warfare, consumer choices and how people think. Artificial Intelligence Keynote Speaker

   

Discover Your Future: Key Trends, Futurist Keynotes, Industry Forecasts

Welcome to your FUTURE - select drop down menu at top of page for your topic / industry. 

* 15.5 million visitors, 6 million video views, conference keynotes by Patrick Dixon, Chairman Global Change Ltd, ranked in the past as one of 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50), Futurist author of 16 books including The Future of Almost EverythingFuturewise, Building a Better Businesss and Sustainagility with 52,000 Twitter followers, 700,000 links to this site. He has worked with over 400 of the world's largest corporations. Book an event with Patrick Dixon, one of the world's best known Futurist keynote speakers.

   

Future of FinTech - Keynote Speaker on FinTech Innovation - Impact on Banking, Insurance and Personal Finance

I have worked with many of the largest banks and insurers in the world over the last 20 years, and all of them are focussed right now on the threat and opportunity of FinTech innovation.

Very simply: FinTech will cause as radical changes to banking and payments as the web has caused to the whole of society. Combine the gigantic power of the web and mobile tech with the profits of the entire financial sector worldwide, and you get one of the greatest opportunities to create digital wealth that the world has ever seen.

That's one reason why FinTech is one of the fastest growing areas of IT innovation with over $18bn invested a year.  In the first 3 months of 2017, Global FinTech startups raised $2.78n of investment from global venture capital firms, in 226 separate deals. In London alone there are probably over 10,000 FinTech startups - it is hard to keep track of the frenetic pace of change in this sector.

Why is FinTech so important?

FinTech combines all the power of the web, the potential of mobile transactions, the capabilities of cloud-computing, of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data analytics, and all the potential of mega-sized IT platforms, to completely transform how money is stored and transferred, globally.

Read more: Future of FinTech - Keynote Speaker on FinTech Innovation - Impact on Banking, Insurance and Personal Finance

   

The Future of War: Hybrid Conflicts, Civil Chaos, Cyberattacks, Border Disputes. Impact on defence spending, Superpowers Military Strategy - keynote speaker

A few years ago, I gave a lecture to the Pentagon (USPACOM), on how to reduce risks of future wars and reduce international tensions. It was one of the toughest assignments I can remember.

Our world spends over $1.8 trillion every year on weapons and other defence costs, or 2.5% of global GDP, down from 4% in the last days of the Cold War, equivalent to $250 per person on earth. Combined sales of the largest 100 arms companies is around $320 billion a year - yet most of it is completely irrelevant to the conflicts of the future.

40% of all global military spending is by one nation alone: America, which burns up more in this way than the next 15 highest-spending nations combined. This is a truly spectacular imbalance of military fire-power, and will be unsustainable in the longer term as we will see.  America only needs to spend 3% of GDP on arms to achieve such dominance – compared to Russia which today spends 4% of a much smaller economy, China 2%, India 2%, UK 2%, France 2%, Israel 6%, Saudi Arabia 9% and Oman 12%.... But how do we ensure world peace?....

Read more: The Future of War: Hybrid Conflicts, Civil Chaos, Cyberattacks, Border Disputes. Impact on defence spending, Superpowers Military Strategy - keynote speaker

   

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