Government, Politics, Democracy, War

Future of GeoPolitics, Democracy, Government, Activism, Conflict, Hybrid Wars in a world dominated by AI

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

World-class keynote speaker on future geopolitical risks, government, democracy, public sector, single issue activism, conflicts, hybrid wars and related issues, in a world increasingly dominated by AI / Artificial Intelligence. Patrick Dixon is one of the world's best-known Futurist keynote speakers, has worked with hundreds of the world's largest companies, many governments and non-profits, and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today. Clients include hundreds of the world's largest multinationals, as well as World Bank, UNIDO, UNAIDS, European Commission, US Federal Government (Pentagon), Abu Dhabi Police Authority, UK Department of Trade and Industry, Irish government, South Korea Ministry of Knowledge and Economy, Jebel Ali Free Zone (UAE), Kazakhstan government, Lithuanian government, Portuguese government, State of Connecticut, Welsh Assembly, UK Parliament, London Connect. Patrick Dixon has given Futurist keynotes on issues related to public policy, to audiences in North America, Central America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Baltic States, Scandinavia, Africa, Central Asia, South East Asia and Asia Pacific.

Future of war in AI-driven world. Impact on Iran conflict, Ukraine. Why drones will continue to humble superpowers, as asymmetric threats. Impact on geopolitics. What this means for battlefield strategy, and ground troops. Future Defence Strategy Keynote

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

What’s next in the battles driven by exploding drones? As I predicted in 2 books, drones have given vast destructive powers to small groups with low budgets. Expect massive investment in anti-drone tech, particularly lasers like UK's DragonFire and the U.S. Helios. Until widely available, every "normal military campaign" will face huge added risks.

Swarms of small, AI-driven drones will always strike targets more easily than missiles can destroy them. Lasers can neutralize thousands of drones with a limited number of systems, costing only a few dollars per hit. However, such weapons will be expensive, require very high power, yet must be highly mobile to avoid being destroyed themselves.

To grasp the immense scale of the challenge, consider aerial displays in China, where 5,000 to 10,000 synchronized drones replace fireworks. Imagine 20,000 attack drones over a single area, each with an explosive charge, each independently controlled by AI-linked cameras, making their own targeting decisions - even when GPS and online contact is jammed.

Such AI will be trained using 1 million hours of drone operator videos from Ukraine. That's a huge amount of learning for AI defence systems.

President Putin's greatest risks now - impact on war with Ukraine. Risk of Russia war with NATO. Russia's past is key to it's military future. War and Russian economy, Russian foreign policy and political aspirations. Geopolitical risks keynote speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

30th April 2026 comment on posts below: Europe continues to be at major risk of a further Russian miscalculation, but at same time, President Putin now faces multiple additional challenges, which are growing rapidly, are interconnected, and will be increasingly hard to deal with:

These include

- Static front lines - despite media reporting in Russia, changes very minor - a snail would reach Kiev faster than speed of advances over the last year

- Poor access to accurate information about what actually happening - typical in dictatorships where bad news is often hidden

- Unsustainable losses of troops and equipment - huge numbers of deaths

- Rapidly growing techno-power of Ukraine long range and short range drones, astonishing speed of innovation

- Growing resentment in cities like Moscow from web disruption and censorship etc - a threat to economic growth

- Very high inflation and interest rates - unsustainable without eventual economic collapse

- Disruption of oil and gas exports - attacks, seizure of tankers, sanctions

- Sanctions resulting in higher import prices of huge range of vital materials / / components / products

- Poorly developed manufacturing base - plus corruption at many levels

- Multiple loan defaults by companies starting to hit large banks

- Shortage of skilled workers - due to huge military deployment

- Even greater shortage of talented executives - 1m migrated shortly after conflict began

- Returning soldiers from battle to towns and villages with severe injuries and resentment about treatment of troops on front lines

- Growing numbers of bereaved parents, many with very disturbing stories

- Gossip about front-line abuse / atrocities / corruption undermining troop morale

- Collapse in fertility rates

- Rising alcoholism to record levels

- Impact of huge numbers of criminals released from prison causing challenges on front line and local communities

- Psychological trauma in large numbers of Russian troops as a result of combat exposure in terrible conditions, overseen by uncaring or corrupt superior officers

The greatest challenge of all

We can debate which of the above are most significant, but the greatest issue for President Putin and his leadership is something else entirely....

AI in Government. Impact of AI on state departments, AI efficiency, AI cost-saving. AI policy decisions and global regulation of AI. Extract Ch26 BESTSELLER book: How AI will Change Your Life - by Patrick Dixon, keynote speaker on insurance and AI

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

Patrick Dixon is a global keynote speaker on cybersecurity and AI - author of 18 books - here in conversation with Futurist Gerd Leonhard

NEW AI BOOK IN BESTSELLER LIST FOR 12 MONTHs IN AIRPORTS GLOBALLY - WH SMITHS

WE NEED TO DISTINGUISH between government as in managing a country, which is about the civil service and ministerial departments, and government as in leading a nation, which is all about politics in a democracy, autocracy or dictatorship. (See previous chapter for wider use of AI in surveillance).

AI is already widely used by the civil service in most developed countries, supporting whoever is leading government. Key areas for AI will be developing policy options, modelling the impact of proposed policies, writing policy details and drafting legislation.

And at the end of this book is a proposed 10 Point Plan AI for governments, actions and policy decisions to take now.

For the next five years, almost all such AI support activities will tend to be on separate systems, but by 2040 many government AI systems will be networked into one all-powerful, all-knowing AI colossus. This is despite inherent risks.

To some extent this is already happening across systems used by security services. So, for example, a security officer can access all of someone’s personal information relating to internet activity (searches, social media, purchases), location, phone logs, family and friends, employment, tax, immigration, banking, driving offences, criminal record, health records – plus other insights generated by AI-linked pattern recognition, predictive analytics. Such an entity will become a primary target for hostile countries to attack (and for ‘friendly’ countries to quietly probe).

Read on - buy my new book NOW. "How AI Will Change Your Life."

AI warfare: AI in future conflicts. Battlefield AI, impact of AI on defence, military budgets, AI hybrid weapons, armed forces strategy. Extract Ch25 BESTSELLER book: How AI will Change Your Life - by Patrick Dixon, keynote speaker on Defence and AI

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

Patrick Dixon is a global keynote speaker on AI in defence / war, author of 18 books - in conversation with Futurist Gerd Leonhard.

NEW AI BOOK IN BESTSELLER LIST FOR 12 MONTHs IN AIRPORTS GLOBALLY - WH SMITHS

MILITARY SPENDING across the world will accelerate rapidly over the next decade and beyond, because of a growing threat of major wars in addition to existing conflicts. AI will be part of this defence industry boom. Military AI is racing ahead of all other AI innovation, except for AI in cybersecurity, national security, healthcare and workplace automation.

Military forces already spend $5bn a year on AI, for target acquisition, battle simulation, smarter intelligence and better weapon design. The Pentagon alone will invest $2bn in AI in 2025,

some of which will be in cybersecurity and cyberattack capabilities.The first two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine were a ghastly shock to military forces across the world, who had become over-reliant on smart weapons and mobile troops. Half a million fighters trapped in frozen trenches, cowering under artillery bombardment, trapped by landmines, thousands blown apart every month, in static conditions like those in the First World War.

Despite the horrors in Ukraine and the failure of high-tech weapons to achieve rapid gains, AI supremacy will become increasingly important. Indeed, the next stages of the Russian conflict will be dominated by drones and tech which increasingly relies on AI.

Wartime has always driven rapid innovation, and the fastest advances in AI will happen in the heat of fighting, amid the thunder of explosions and the destruction of cities. Advanced AI will detect threats in microseconds and be capable of triggering military conflicts in minutes, beyond the mental capacity of military leaders. AI will therefore end up with huge influence over military strategies and will control most firepower directly or indirectly.

Read on - buy my new book NOW. "How AI Will Change Your Life."

Looking for a world-class keynote speaker on AI in Defence? Call +44 7768 511390

Queen Elizabeth II: the power of example over a lifetime. Lessons for all great leaders. Why her impact on our future world will be so long lasting. Example is the only form of leadership that endures, because it is based on integrity and authenticity

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

The impact of the reign of Queen Elizabeth II, and of her leadership example, will be very long lasting, because she became one of the most trusted and respected figureheads on the world stage, as well as in her own nation. Her life was rooted in a deep sense of public duty, and a commitment to a life of public service, which was forced upon her by circumstance.

Hundreds of millions of words have already been written about her life, but the most powerful perhaps were spoken....

Russian military strategy in Ukraine under pressure. Longer term impact of military action / war on energy industry, wider economy and other geopolitical risks. Patrick Dixon is a Futurist Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

Geopolitical, energy industry and wider economy risks following Russia invasion of Ukraine. Comment during keynote at Seminarium event in Santiago, Chile.

* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including chapters on the future impact of AI on energy markets, defence, war and national security.

Future of War: defence spending by superpowers, hybrid conflicts, space weapons, new nuclear risks, AI / Artificial Intelligence, satellite wars, military drones, robot fighters, future arms industry. Assymetric threats and terrorism, failed states

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

Extract from The Future of Almost Everything book - written 2019.

More than $1.8 trillion is spent every year on weapons and other defence costs, or 2.5% of global GDP, down from 4% in the last days of the Cold War, equivalent to $250 per person on earth. Combined sales of the largest 100 arms companies is around $320bn a year. However, 40% of all global military spending is by one nation alone: America, which burns up more in this way than the next 15 highest-spending nations combined. This is a truly spectacular imbalance of military fire-power, and will be unsustainable in the longer term, as we will see. Next is China with 9.5% of global military spending, followed by Russia at 5.2%, UK 3.5% and Japan 3.4%.

America needs to spend just 3% of GDP on arms to achieve such dominance – compared to Russia, which today spends 4% of a much smaller economy, China 2%, India 2%, UK 2%, France 2%, Israel 6%, Saudi Arabia 9% and Oman 12%. This relentless build-up of ultra-powerful weaponry will continue to feed tension, resentment and fear over the next two decades. America’s army, navy and air force will be dominant globally for the next 15‒20 years, despite rapidly increasing military budgets in Russia and China.

* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on defence, war, battle strategies and autonomous weapons.

Why future wars will be radically different: Hybrid Conflicts, Civil Chaos, AI-linked Cyberattacks, Border Disputes. Impact on defence spending, Superpowers Military Strategy - keynote speaker - FEATURE

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

A few years ago, I gave a lecture to the Pentagon (USPACOM), on how to reduce risks of future wars and reduce international tensions. It was one of the toughest assignments I can remember.

Our world spends over $1.8 trillion every year on weapons and other defence costs, or 2.5% of global GDP, down from 4% in the last days of the Cold War, equivalent to $250 per person on earth. Combined sales of the largest 100 arms companies is around $320 billion a year - yet most of it is completely irrelevant to the conflicts of the future.

40% of all global military spending is by one nation alone: America, which burns up more in this way than the next 15 highest-spending nations combined. This is a truly spectacular imbalance of military fire-power, and will be unsustainable in the longer term as we will see. America only needs to spend 3% of GDP on arms to achieve such dominance – compared to Russia which today spends 4% of a much smaller economy, China 2%, India 2%, UK 2%, France 2%, Israel 6%, Saudi Arabia 9% and Oman 12%.... But how do we ensure world peace?....

What will be President Trump's longer term impact on America, global politics, news reporting, future of democracy itself. Why he fits many predictions I made and what is likely to happen next to political leadership globally. FEATURE

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

President Trump is very typical of a new generation of "single-issues politicians", rising up around the world as I predicted years ago (article written September 2018)

He thrives on the elusive powers of 24 hours a day media-streaming of his thoughts and feelings, taps into populist emotions, connects with the passions of ordinary people, expresses very well their fears for their own future, as well as their dreams for their own children.

A part of this has been the powerful slogan: "Make America Great Again", which feeds into deep unease about the declining role, influence and economic powers of America as a proportion of the whole world. This in turn is being driven by the very long term, irresistible and relentless rise in emerging nations, where 85% of humanity already live.

Leaving aside whatever you may feel about President Trump's official, longer term policies, the truth is that his day to day communications and actions are massively different from what is normally expected in developed nations of their own Presidents or Prime Ministers, and are much more typical in some ways of patterns that we tend to see amongst semi-dictators in emerging markets....

Why Trump Won - how tribalism will dominate the future of democracy: and why President Trump will struggle to deliver

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

Reasons for the US election victory of Donald Trump will be debated for decades. Here are major long-term factors at work across America and in every other democratic nation, which I described in The Future of Almost Everything - my latest book, see below, (with additions in italics today). These set the backdrop for dramatic events over the last few hours (9 November 2016), and also influenced the Brexit vote. Read on for" What happens when faith in ideologies and parties dies; why tribalism is the most powerful force in the world today; why President Trump will struggle to deliver.

Here Comes Radical Change: Future of Public Services, Demographics -- Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

Patrick Dixon -- conference keynote speaker -- impact of demographics, birth rates, youth, urban migration and immigration, life expectancy forecasts. All impact demand for public services, health care budgets, community services, demand for education...

Social networks impact on democracy, dictatorships and freedom of information

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

democracy and democratic pressures from social networks. Cover ups and government deceptions, impact of wikileaks on government internal communications and policies. Freedom of information and corruption. Politics and political change. Impact of SMS, twitter, Linkedin, Facebook, Youtube and other social networks on dictatorships v democracy. How dictators fear loss of political power from freedom of information. Use of mobile technology, smart phones and other communication devices to drive protests and public disorder. How governments and dictatorships have switched off mobile telephones and SMS, web ...

Future of Conflicts

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

Preventing Future Conflicts - with special reference to Asia Pacific. Keynote address for 500 US military (US Pentagon Pacific Command senior leadership) and guests.

Radical Activists: How aggressive passion in tiny numbers of people will change our world and impact of terrorism.

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

Radical political forces, activism, terrorism and single issues. Carbon trading? Global warming? Environment? Discrimination and social justice?

Democracy what kind of system is best? Are other systems of government more appropriate in some emerging economies? Different systems of democracy.

How democracy could work for a global government based loosely around the UN United Nations. Should the majority global population have power to alter how the global village is run ...

Dictatorships and Revolution in Digital Age: People Power after Tunisia, Egypt, Libya

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Democracy, War - Future

What next after Tunisia, Libya, Egypt? Impact of SMS, twitter, Linkedin, Facebook, Youtube and other social networks on dictatorships v democracy in Middle East and across the world. How Africa, Arab and Asia dictators fear loss of political power from freedom of information.

Use of mobile technology, smart phones and other communication devices to drive protests and public disorder. How governments and dictatorships have switched off mobile telephones and SMS, web access etc to maintain political control. How power is shifting from government leaders, ...

The greatest challenge of all

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