Beyond Chaos - how to survive and thrive. What next for global trade, tariffs, Russian war, other geopolitical risks and the global economy.

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Comment on "global chaos' - March 2025 

As a Futurist who has worked with over 400 of the world's largest corporations, as well as advising many governments, I have successfully forecast a huge range of global trends over the last 30 years. 

Described in many of my 18 books including Futurewise, The Future of Almost Everything, SustainAgility and most recently How AI Will Change Your Life. See also this website.

Our world is undergoing a major convulsion created by geopolitical threats, autocratic leaders and massive tehno-changes such as AI. What does this mean for the future?

Here are my key messages for leaders of companies and governments. You may be the largest bank in the world, an AI giant or on oil company - the same factors apply.

Reality Check - Megatrends will continue to drive global growth

It's vital to keep a sense of perspective in times of chaos – to keep focussed on the larger picture.

Our planet continues to turn, day in, day out - and lives of almost all ordinary people continue to change relatively slowly.

Despite the frenzy of media news-feeds, the TRUTH is that our world will continue to be driven by macro-forces which are far more powerful than any government. 

Examples include:

• Innovation and techno-revolutions such as AI
• Demographic changes – population growth, better health and ageing
• Wealth contrasts across regions – driving mass migrations 
• Rapid growth in power and influence of emerging markets
• Global race towards a more ‘sustainable’ future

As we saw in the global banking crisis of 2008-2011, world economic growth continued, with hardly a pause.  

The same happened during the COVID pandemic.  

Megatrends such as those above will continue to drive growth, as for the last 30 years, with only short term blips.

While stock market corrections are inevitable after long periods when prices have risen, it very unlikely that we are about to see another global banking crisis – partly due to many checks and balances since 2011.

 (However, AI could trigger global chaos in financial services within the next 5-10 years - see my latest book.)

Those with CASH make money from CHAOS

In all times of prolonged market chaos, many companies run out of cash, creating huge opportunities to seize assets at bargain prices and increase market share.

Therefore, the Number One “survive and thrive” strategy right now is likely to be LIQUIDITY.  

Mobilise assets.  Take care over timing of major investments.

Focus on AGILITY.  

At every level.  Above all else.  

The days of having only one Strategy are over. Scenario planning, contingencies, planning ahead constantly.

President Trump has far less power than many think

You cannot create a strategy out of a frenzy of White House social media posts. Nor do you need to.

President Trump’s "reign" will effectively be “over” in 3.5 years.  The US election cycle is only 4 years.

Compare that to my pharma clients whose board meeting horizons are 25 years or more:  15 years to develop a drug, 10 years remaining of Patent Life after launch. So pharma strategies are already taking us beyond 2050. 

Another example is the oil industry, where time from concept to drilling a new deep sea well, to extraction to full cost payback could easily be 30+ years.

Or the time to launch a single new aircraft carrier - from decision to active service is typically 8 years.

The truth is that whatever President Trump tries to do, over the next three decades the US will continue to decline as a global force – economic, political and military.  

The primary reason is that emerging nations such as China and India will continue to see much faster economic growth.

This global trend will continue for the next 30 years, driven by lower wages and other costs of production, and by population size.

The relative decline of US "importance" will feed a growing sense of national malaise, which is likely to last decades.

A similar thing happened to the UK. In the early 20th Century, 25% of the global land area belonged to the British Empire, and was overseen by a Parliament in London, and defended by the British Navy. "Great Britain" was the world's only Super Power.  After the end of the Second World War, that Empire fell apart at great speed, leading to a British crisis of identity and confidence which lasted more than 70 years. 

US Presidential Powers are limited

A President's powers in America and beyond are in any case limited by:

• Congress and Senate 
• State Governments
• Judiciary – upholding the Constitution
• Deep State - yes as every President and Prime Minister knows, the "system" can work against you
• General Inertia - read any biography of a political leader and you will hear frustration
• Market forces

Market Forces far greater in power than Presidents

Import tarrifs are often popular – until retail prices rise and markets collapse.

Tarrifs will be used by the current US administration as a brutal bargaining tool, threats, easing off.  

But US-based companies and investors are already demanding much greater certainty in government policy.  

It's impossible for a manufacturer to stay in business without stable prices of raw materials and components, and a reliable supply chain.

Global trade is in longer term US economic and political interests - in general. At the same time many voters will continue to feel there is a compelling case for protecting particular industry sectors in the US.

US military is badly over-stretched – Europe, Middle East, Pacific

The US focus will be on potential conflict with China -  on multiple levels. As a result, the Pentagon will be forced to divert resources to the East.

Taiwan is a strategic nation for the US. 90% of the world's most advanced computer chips, and 60% overall, are made in Taiwan.  

A trade blockade / invasion by China could paralyse vital parts of the US economy including the IT / AI sectors and, most importantly, defence manufacturing - which would rapidly grind to a halt.

You might think it crazy that such a dependence should have been allowed to develop over the last two decades, but the fact is that it will take many years for the US / EU to be free from the "Taiwan Risk".

China - astonishing economic and military growth

China has grown it's economy at an average of more than 5% for decades, and continues to invest in next-generation technologies at astonishing speed, including AI, genomics, e-vehicles, quantum computing.

China’s internal market is already one of world’s most important. Just one example is huge boom in e-vehicle sales and green power generation.

China's navy is already largest in the world, growing by 400 ships a year.

China produces more large navy ships every 2 years than the US owns today.

China has 23 million tons total shipbuilding capacity compared to just 100,000 tons in US.  This massive imbalance will take a decade for the US to sort out.

As a result of all this, Taiwan will increasingly be under threat from a shipping blockade by China. This could be a situation where only "approved" shipments are allowed through.

The US is unlikely to have the muscle or willingness to engage in a Pacific War.

As we saw in the Second World War, nations far away from one regional conflict can easily be tempted to settle their own territorial claims at a time when they think that other nations are weakened / distracted.  Therefore Chinese pressure on Taiwan becomes much more likely if the Russian - Ukraine and Middle East conflicts become even more inflamed.

In the longer term, the greatest threat to China's continued growth will be lack of children - severe ageing of population, compared to India, despite falling family size in India too (now around 2 children per younger couple, compared to 1.1 in China).

Russia’s hostility towards Ukraine  / Western Europe

Every NATO wargames exercise prior to Russia invading Ukraine showed same thing back in the early 2000s: likely outcome of a sudden land invasion = significant land gain for Russia.

And that will indeed be the almost inevitable outcome in 2030 – whatever the result of negotiations in 2025-2026.  

Any pause or cessation of hostilities in Ukraine will allow rapid ramping up of military strength by Russia to replace massive recent losses.

Whoever leads Russia over the next decade will feel compelled to completely overhaul and renew the military. 

Russian war spending is 6.7% GDP – exceeding whole of EU - and will likely exceed 5% in 5 years time, even if a peace agreement is formally declared with Ukraine.

A brand new, fully re-armed Russian military will pose major threats to neighbouring countries by 2030, together with ongoing “hybrid war” eg undersea cables, cyberattacks.

Reality Check for Russia

However, a reality check.  Despite advantages of military size, surprise, lack of defence capability in Ukraine and absence of Nato “feet on the ground”, the fact is that Russia’s military failed to achieve its objectives, which were:

• Whole of Ukraine
• In less than a month
• With minimal losses

European Union –  strength and weakness

The EU has colossal combined strength - on paper - depending on how the EU / NATO is led as a military force.

• EU combined GDP is $20 trillion – 10 times Russia
• NATO combined GDP is $64 trillion – almost 30 times Russia
• EU population is 450 million – over 3 times size of Russia

But the  EU is incapable of ultra-fast, strategic decisions, because EU leadership is required to defer to so many different national leaders, which in turn are worried about their own opinion polls, and are constantly changing.

Therefore the EU will continue to appear divided and weak to President Putin, NATO even more so, with prevarications by President Trump.  This will add to risk of another major military miscalculation by Russia.

EU etc will massively increase defence spending over the next 5-8 years, reaching more than 3.5% in some cases.  

However, increased military spending will mean painful cuts elsewhere, sowing seeds of political unrest, which Russia will look to exploit.

At the same time, ageing populations, especially in Italy and Germany, will mean many nations will need more migrant labour (despite political sensitivities of this).

So what do we make of all this?

As I have said above:

• Conserve cash - control costs and investment timings
• Look for opportunities in chaos
• Agile, flexible strategy
• Keep focussed on what really to your clients / customers

The fundamentals of your business are unlikely in most cases to change just because of a few short term trade barriers, or other news headlines.

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