THE TRUTH ABOUT FUTURE MASS MIGRATION - a people movement with greater force than any military superpower. As I predicted in "Futurewise" (1998-2005), large scale migration is now unstoppable, able to break governments, yet many nations NEED migration

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THE TRUTH ABOUT FUTURE MASS MIGRATION - a people movement with greater force than any military superpower. 

As I predicted in "Futurewise" (1998-2005), large scale migration is already an unstoppable, global force, powerful enough to break governments and fuel extremists, likely to lead to civil unrest and chaos in some nations.

Yet migration will also be a vital part of the longer term future of many developed nations, bringing many much needed skills and other resources, as well as enriching culture and encouraging innovation.

Indeed, many developed nations will experience national decline without significant migration - for reasons below.

That is why many governments are in the midst of a great cultural, moral and economic dilemma.

1 billion more will migrate by 2060 - 100m across borders

1 billion will move from fields to cities in the next 30 years, of which 100m will cross at least one border legally or illegally, fleeing conflicts and severe poverty.

The truth is that at least 50 million people today are willing to risk death to find a better life for themselves and those they love.

Many of them will do so.

They feel they have nothing to loose and are driven by a powerful vision of a better future.

The causes of such intense despair and desperation are complex but very important to understand.

1% of the population owns 50% of global wealth

And the other 99% see this every day on advertising hoardings, TV screens and mobile phones.

They see a totally different world, the one you probably live in yourself - driven by rapid innovation, virtual tech, AI, and a host of other factors beyond their imagination.

Never in human history have such wealth contrasts been so great and so obvious and so compelling without revolution following.

Most people have very limited access to health care, while 1 billion are regularly hungry or short of water.

I have seen this at first hand through the work of the Foundation ACET, which started in our own family home 35 years ago, now in 10 nations, improving the lives of tens of thousands in different ways, in some of the poorest and most remote communities in the world.

Whatever your views on climate change, tens of millions are drifting from lands that can no longer be farmed reliably because of regular severe drought or flooding. 

70 million refugees across the world

There are also 70 million refugees in the world today, many of whom have witnessed violent deaths of family, many persecuted for their faith, ethnicity, or language they speak. Vast numbers of families on the move, often with traumatised young children.

At the same time, there is often a free ride to be had on the back of a lorry, towards the next town or city, across Africa or Asia, or Latin America, or Central and Eastern Europe.

Typically younger men move first, sending money home. That is why remittances are now the largest source of income for many communities and nations.

Most national borders are easy to cross

Most borders are very poorly patrolled (fields or forests can be walked across, rivers crossed, beaches landed on).

Even borders which are strictly policed can still be crossed as we see every day in the United States from Mexico, and in Italy from North Africa..

But there's an easier way for many others - for example, by flying into a nation on a holiday visa or a student visa and then disappearing into homes of friends or family. 

Many ageing nations will need to boost populations with migration

Many ageing nations like Germany, Italy, Poland, Japan, China and Russia will boost populations, in some cases by 10-15% in 30 years, absorbing young workers from poor nations (whether arrived legally or not).

Providing workers, driving growth and tax revenues - on which future health and social care will depend.

10% of Japan is already over 80 years old.  This is an unsustainable trend economically without opening up much further to migrants who want to live and work in Japan.  T

What is the answer to reducing mass migration?

The longer term solution is to invest in economic development of the poorest nations.

Global levelling up is one of the most profound moral challenges of our day alongside caring for our planet.

Expect huge growth in Social Impact investing - where the entire investment is designed to produce major community benefit and rapid economic growth, while also giving good rates of return on investment (ROI).

Expect massive boom in Social Impact Investments

Here's a great example of Social Impact Investing:  student loans in Africa.

If a student needs a loan to go to University, interest rates in the market can be as high as 30%.

New loan providers are entering the market, working in partnership with Social Investment Funds and Universities, together with Philanthropists.

It works like this.  Some seed capital is donated, to launch the scheme.  This attracts a lot more Social Investment funding in form of loans which are lent to students at less than 10%.  

The truth is that default rates on such student loans are low, and Universities can be asked to help underwrite some of those risks. The outcome is that tens of thousands more students can afford University, and the interest they pay gives a great return to investors.

The maths is astonishing when you think about it.

A $3000 loan results in a degree for someone who would never otherwise have been able to go to University.

As a result of their training, their average earnings is likely to increase significantly for the following 30 years.

Let's suppose that their earnings only increase by $1000 a year for 30 years (very pessimistic).  Then the Lifetime Impact of the $3000 loan will be $30,000 incase terms, plus the multiplying effect on the local economy etc etc.  That's a highly significant outcome.

Of course it is still the case that many new graduates will aspire to migrate eg doctors from a nation like Nigeria to somewhere like the UK - as has been happening on a large scale.  Most however usually remain local to where they trained.

But even where graduate migration happens, as I said above, remittances can still benefit the original nation.

Economic development will be more rapid in poorest nations

The good news is that economic development lifts more people out of poverty every year than the combined philanthropy of the entire developed world.

Economic growth in emerging nations will outstrip developed nations by average 1.5% each year for the next 30 years or more.

This too will be an unstoppable force. Those with stable and effective government will see the most rapid growth of all.

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