Swine Flu: "Pandemic imminent" says WHO

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future Health Care and Pharma Keynote Speaker

30 April 2009: WHO has raised the alert over Swine Flu to Level 5 - only one step short of a full pandemic.  Two days ago they announced Level 4 had been reached - the first time since the steps were introduced following Sars in 2003. Mexico's President Felipe Calderon announcing partial suspension of all non-essential work and services from 1 May to 5 May. He urged people to stay at home with their families during the shutdown. Swine Flu continues to spread around the world but while the number of suspected cases is rising rapidly, especially in Mexico, the number of cases with formal confirmation remains small.  What can we expect to happen next?  What are the real risks?

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Swine Flu Mexico shutdown: update and comment

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future Health Care and Pharma Keynote Speaker

Comment in early days of Mexico Swine Flu epidemic in 2009: Research suggests that the virus causing Swine Flu (H1N1) may turn out to be quite similar to normal flu in mortality rates (1 in 1000).  This is based on a genetic analysis which shows that the virus has receptors which bind to the nose and upper airways, rather than to lung tissue.  This makes it more infectious but probably less dangerous for each person infected.  But these are early days.

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Swine Flu – Global Pandemic Threat - loss of life and business disruption

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future Health Care and Pharma Keynote Speaker

Even if the spread of Swine Flu Virus is as well contained as Sars was in 2003, it is clear that huge potential exists for business disruption around the world. Sars only infected 8600 people of which 862 died, but wiped billions of dollars from stock markets in South East Asia and caused major challenges for international travel, as well as social chaos in places like Hong Kong where people feared for weeks to gather in public places.  This mutant version of Swine Flu has jumped from pigs to humans, combining it seems elements of bird flu, swine flu, and human flu.  People who have had human flu in the past are unlikely to be protected, nor those recently vaccinated against human flu.

Dr Patrick Dixon, Chairman of Global Change Ltd  said: "We are in a race against time to prevent a global pandemic.  We must also remember that even if the spread of Swine Flu Virus is as well contained as Sars was in 2003, there could still be huge business disruption around the world.  Sars only infected 8600 people in 2003 of which 862 died, but wiped billions of dollars from stock markets in South East Asia and caused major challenges for international travel, as well as social chaos in places like Hong Kong where people feared for weeks to gather in public places. Sars only infected 8,600 before being contained, but this Swine Flu Virus has probably already infected well over 1,600."

* Dr Patrick Dixon is a Futurist, physician, author of The Truth about AIDS, Futurewise and The Genetic Revolution.  He consults to a wide range of multinationals on health-related trends.  Press / media contact:  MEDIA

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Swine Flu - race to prevent pandemic. Sars lessons

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future Health Care and Pharma Keynote Speaker

Our world is right on the brink of an unstoppable global pandemic - whether or not this occurs will probably become clear within the next 2-3 weeks.  Less than a week after first cases of severe flu were linked to a mutant Swine Flu virus, Swine Flu was confirmed in Mexico, US, UK, Spain, Israel,New Zealand with over 10 other nations reporting suspected cases.  Swine Flu has spread further and faster than Sars did in 2003 - a virus which caused massive business disruption and social chaos in some parts of the world for several months.   Fortunately, early indications are that those infected are responding well to antiviral therapy, plus treatment of secondary chest infections with antibiotics.  Since 1987 I have been predicting the great vulnerability of our world to new mutant viruses or mutations of existing ones.  Lessons from previous mutant viruses and global pandemics.

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Swine Fever - Urgent - "Lancet" on Global Threat

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future Health Care and Pharma Keynote Speaker

Here is the full press release on Swine Flu from the Lancet medical journal.  It highlights the vital role that governments need to take, and also how important it is that people with flu-like symptoms in affected countries stay at home and away from other people.  Those in the poorest nations will be most vulnerable.  Need to do all we can to slow spread even if pandemic looks inevitable in future, to win time to create a vaccine (6 months)

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The Future of Medicine and Health Care - Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future Health Care and Pharma Keynote Speaker

A revolution is taking place at every level of society and doctors are struggling to keep up. Advances in medical knowledge are outstripping the capacity of a physician's brain, with most knowledge redundant in less than a decade. New drugs, new treatments, new technologies, new diseases - this means new medicine. Old models of care will not survive without radical change over the next decade.

Read more for videos, articles and comments on the future of medicine.

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