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I've been predicting trends for global companies over the last 30 years - here's why they keep inviting me back.
It's easy to be swept off balance by one media headline after another, and miss what's really important for the future.
Yes the world can feel increasingly chaotic and uncertain, but beyond the media frenzy the truth is that for most corporations, the fundamentals that have driven their growth and success over the last 20-30 years will continue to do so.
Yes of course the world changes, but strange as it may seem, most of those changes are relatively predictable.
Take electric vehicles - goodness me, Futurists like myself predicted over 20 years ago that after a slow start, they would become increasingly important, and eventually dominate.
TIMING is what really matters
Indeed, most debates in board rooms today are not so much about what is going to happen, but is about TIMING.
By when will most new e-vehicles in Paris be e-powered? By when will most short journeys in cars be driven by AI? By when will the Russian-Ukraine fighting cease - even if into a kind of frozen conflict? By when will China's GDP become the largest in the world? By when will we have effective antiviral treatment against things like COVID, flu or common colds?
Yes of course we should make the most of new tech like AI - indeed my latest book How AI Will Change Your Life has been a best-seller in airport bookshops globally for a year now. But at the same time we need a big dose of common sense. A reality check.
I've been predicting trends for the largest companies in the world as well as for governments for around 30 years now. And here's the big thing.
Megatrends endure through decades
Many of the mega-trends I described in Futurewise back in 1998, and in other books like The Future of Almost Everything in 2015 are still driving change today.
That's why companies keep inviting me back. I've just returned from New York, speaking to 80 of the most senior leaders of one of the world's largest insurers - and I covered a huge range of issues including:
- Conflicts in various regions currently
- How trade tariffs etc with the US are likely settle and why
- How our world will rebalance with the rise of Asian economic power over the next 20-30 years
- Longer term impact of AI on workplace and our daily lives
- Impact of health care innovation and robotics / AI on life expectancy and well being
But here's the important thing. The reason I was in New York was because of a keynote I gave to the insurance industry around 20 years ago, and because the person who invited me, whose meeting it was, heard me back then, read my books and decided that TODAY, most of what I predicted back then had indeed happened.
So then - let's look ahead, beyond the current frenzy....
Some say this is a fools job - no one can see the future. Right and wrong.
Wrong because if that was really the case, no board could ever sign off on a 3-5 year strategy let alone longer term investments.
Right because there will always be sudden and disruptive events that cannot be forecast. But the point is that events come and go, but megatrends remain. We saw that in the global economic crisis over 15 years ago, and more recently after COVID.
Read more: How to survive and thrive in a chaotic world - common sense guide to what's happening and what it means for corporate strategy. Megtrends will continue to drive the future - in the midst of multiple "shocks". Keynote Speaker on Strategy and Global Trends