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The music industry post-COVID will face meltdown and chaos, then rebound.
Before the COVID pandemic Music was still a $74bn a year industry, despite digital change, and spent $15bn a year on new recordings, ut big labels were already in crisis, threatened by streaming services which already generate $8bn a year in revenues. American music revenues collapsed from $14.6 billion in 1999 to $6.3 billion in 2009, but began to recover after slashing costs.
Over 50% of their revenues in some nations already come from digital streaming, which grew 45% in 2017 in the UK, with overall revenues growing by 10.6%. But then COVID-19 hit, which resulted in three big changes. Firstly, more time listening at home, and secondly complete freeze in live performances, and thirdly, great difficulty in bringing groups of musicians, writers, producers and others together to create new music.
Just before the COVID pandemic, 60% of music industry revenues were from live performances, up from 33% in 2000. And live music will return. Indeed the more virtual our lives, the greater the premium for breathing the same air as real musicians, hence buskers on the street continue to earn significant amounts if they are talented.
Despite talk of NFTs / non-fungible tokens, based on blockchains, being used to protect music copyright or in licensing, their use will be very limited over the next 5 years, mainly held back by massive energy requirements to run blockchains.
* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including future impact of AI on the music industry, music production, performances, music composing and music streaming platforms.
Read more: Future of the Music Industry - impact of AI, life beyond COVID, importance of live events, spatial audio, copyright protection using blockchain - NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), next generation streaming. Media and Music industry trends - keynote speaker