Reactions against Virtual Work and Relationships - Life beyond Covid - what it means for retail, music, leisure and the workplace, for dating, families and our wider world. Why there will always be premium for "breathing the same air"

Personal lives are measured in minutes, major events in seconds. And COVID has forced our world to become even more virtual. Our world is obsessed with instant information. 

Digital addiction was already one of the commonest causes of anxiety, depression and complete mental breakdown, particularly among young people, before COVID, even more so during lockdown.

During the height of the COVID crisis, hundreds of millions have been forced to spend far more time online or on video calls than they would otherwise have chosen, and much of that will revert.

Before the pandemic began, the average 15-25 year old in the UK already spent an average of 4 hours a day on a mobile, checking for messages every 9 minutes, with time online directly correlated with risk of mental health issues.

But that is nothing compared to the Philippines, where a 2019 survey reported people saying that they spent an average of 10 hours online.

Read more: Reactions against Virtual Work and Relationships - Life beyond Covid - what it means for retail, music, leisure and the workplace, for dating, families and our wider world. Why there will always be premium for "breathing the same air"

 

Climate Emergency will trigger action on wartime scale post COVID: Sustainability / ESG will dominate politics for 300 years. Green tech will radically transform life on earth, but not in time to prevent global crises / environmental catastrophes

SUSTAINABILITY WILL BE A DOMINANT THEME FOR NEXT 300 YEARS

Expect global responses to the climate emergency on a wartime basis - far beyond scale of any normal government measures.  Just look at what happened in the War against COVID. And COVID caused a generation to ask deeper questions about the future survival of humanity, about what we have done to our planet. So which will have the greatest impact? One new virus or wrecking our planet's future?

Expect far greater concerns over the next 30 years about sustainability and what kind of planet will remain in 100 years, with shortages of water, food and other resources and major threats to other forms of life. (Written 4 April 2021 - based on many corporate keynotes given at major events on sustainability, energy use and decarbonisation.)

All the world's largest economies will unity in a common aim to protect our future planet. And in many cases, multinationals will race further ahead than government regulations, to prove their ESG credentials (Environment, Social Responsibility, Governance) to customers, shareholders media and local communities. We've seen accelerated corporate responses before in many other areas such as food safety and food labelling, animal welfare in farming, vehicle safety and so on, where companies have rapidly delivered while governments dithered.

The Construction Industry will be the front line for radical change towards zero carbon - linked to 38% of carbon emissions (building, demolishing, heating and cooling) - see below.

Expect massive catch up in America following the exit of President Trump, and fresh initiatives on massive scale to be proposed by both China and India, ramping up rapidly their own national responses over the next decade.

Read more: Climate Emergency will trigger action on wartime scale post COVID: Sustainability / ESG will dominate politics for 300 years. Green tech will radically transform life on earth, but not in time to prevent global crises / environmental catastrophes

   

Future of the Music Industry - life beyond COVID, live events, copyright protection using blockchain - NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), next generation streaming. Media and Music industry trends - keynote speaker

The music industry post-COVID will face meltdown and chaos, then rebound.

Before the COVID pandemic Music was still a $74bn a year industry, despite digital change, and spent $15bn a year on new recordings, ut big labels were already in crisis, threatened by streaming services which already generate $8bn a year in revenues. American music revenues collapsed from $14.6 billion in 1999 to $6.3 billion in 2009, but began to recover after slashing costs.

Over 50% of their revenues in some nations already come from digital streaming, which grew 45% in 2017 in the UK, with overall revenues growing by 10.6%.  But then COVID-19 hit, which resulted in three big changes.  Firstly, more time listening at home, and secondly complete freeze in live performances, and thirdly, great difficulty in bringing groups of musicians, writers, producers and others together to create new music.

Just before the COVID pandemic, 60% of music industry revenues were from live performances, up from 33% in 2000. And live music will return. Indeed the more virtual our lives, the greater the premium for breathing the same air as real musicians, hence buskers on the street continue to earn significant amounts if they are talented.

Despite talk of NFTs / non-fungible tokens, based on blockchains, being used to protect music copyright or in licensing, their use will be very limited over the next 5 years, mainly held back by massive energy requirements to run blockchains.

Read more: Future of the Music Industry - life beyond COVID, live events, copyright protection using blockchain - NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), next generation streaming. Media and Music industry trends - keynote speaker

   

Future of the Global Economy Post Covid-19 - impact of trillions of dollars of economic stimulus and wider megatrends on longer term economic growth

* Patrick Dixon advises many of the world's largest corporations on global trends, including banks, insurers and governments. 

What factors will shape longer term economic growth globally?  What about life beyond COVID?  What will be the impact of the combined economic stimulus of Central Banks?

There have been two major economic crises in the last 12 years: the banking crisis and now the pandemic crisis.

Major economic factors that will shape the next decade and beyond

Here are the major factors likely to shape the global economy over the next decade and beyond:

Read more: Future of the Global Economy Post Covid-19 - impact of trillions of dollars of economic stimulus and wider megatrends on longer term economic growth

   

Cybercrime - one of world's greatest threats. 12 simple actions for every business and individual. Cyber-attacks will cost >$5 trillion a year by 2025. How to stop hacking, ransomware attacks, data loss, IP theft

When you combine all the power and all the weaknesses of the Internet of Things, Big Data, Cloud Computing and Artificial Intelligence, together with 6 billion smartphones, computers and other smart devices, the result is a gigantic range of lucrative targets, and a potential future global emergency.  

As I warned years ago, every large company in the world is now experiencing frequent, severe cyber-attacks, on their own systems or in the Cloud, whether they know or not.

As we will see, over 4 billion people have already been personally affected by theft of their private details – and this is just the beginning of the security nightmare, which will drive huge investment in new security measures by all large corporations and by governments.

Read more: Cybercrime - one of world's greatest threats. 12 simple actions for every business and individual. Cyber-attacks will cost >$5 trillion a year by 2025. How to stop hacking, ransomware attacks, data loss, IP theft

   

Future of Pharma beyond COVID - how COVID accelerated pharma innovation, drug discovery, clinical trials, safety testing, regulatory approvals, licensing - impact of COVID on future drug development and future health care. Pharma keynote speaker

COVID has forced acceleration in pharma drug discovery, innovation, clinical trials and regulatory approval / licencing as well as major changes in delivery of health care. What does this all mean for the future of pharma and health care?  Take for example the rapid growth of "virtual drug trials" - see below.

As a Physician as well as a Futurist I have worked with most of the largest pharma companies, helping them to understand the future.  I have warned for over two decades of global risks from new pandemics like COVID.

So what will be the Future of Pharma beyond COVID-19?

Here are notes on a recent Virtual keynote on the future of pharma.

Read more: Future of Pharma beyond COVID - how COVID accelerated pharma innovation, drug discovery, clinical trials, safety testing, regulatory approvals, licensing - impact of COVID on future drug development and future health care. Pharma keynote speaker

   

Future of workplace after COVID - home working, virtual teams, office occupancy - radical change, or back to normal? Truth about longer term workplace trends after COVID. How to get your business back on track - keys to success in a post-COVID world

What will happen to patterns of work after COVID?  Most of my global clients are trying to guess what their teams will want to do after the pandemic is over.  What will happen to office occupancy?  Will virtual work patterns continue, or will we revert to previous behaviours?  What happens to future business travel? Will today's corporate HQs and other iconic offices become redundant?

I've been predicting global trends for 30 years - and here's a few forecasts for the next 10 years of work...

Read more: Future of workplace after COVID - home working, virtual teams, office occupancy - radical change, or back to normal? Truth about longer term workplace trends after COVID. How to get your business back on track - keys to success in a post-COVID world

   

New therapies for COVID-19. Why treatments more important than COVID vaccines in longer term. Truth about global fight against new viruses

People often say to me that the answer to new viral pandemics is to develop vaccines.  This is clearly nonsense since it takes months to develop a vaccine, months more to test, years to vaccinate the world at vast cost, and the vaccine itself may not produce long term immunity, or may be overtaken by new mutations.

That is why for two decades now I have been warning of the need to develop next-generation antivirals.

We still don't have a single antiviral today that is as powerful and effective as penicillin was against bacteria when first discovered over 80 years ago.

But one benefit of vaccines is buying us time to learn about new viruses so we can reduce death rates with better therapy.

Research falls mainly into three areas: antivirals, immune modulators and drugs to prevent blood clotting.  Here are some examples - this area of medical research is growing at astonishing speed..

Read more: New therapies for COVID-19. Why treatments more important than COVID vaccines in longer term. Truth about global fight against new viruses

   

Future of the Construction Industry, rush to Net Zero Carbon (NZC), Smart Buildings, Smart Cities, infrastructure, offsite-manufacturing, modular buildings, modern methods of construction, green tech innovation, changes in use after COVID. Keynote Speake

It’s not enough to create smart buildings that are ultra-efficient to heat or cool.  We also need to focus on how long those buildings will actually last.  My own home was built in 1842 and I expect will still be lived in by the year 2300.  But I don’t know many commercial tower blocks or factories being built today that have a life-expectancy of more than 50 years - and many buildings being demolished today are less than 40 years old.

This really matters, because 30% of the entire energy consumed in the average life cycle of an office tower is the energy consumed in building it, and 10% more can be consumed in demolition.  

We need to see far more life-enhancing, iconic structures that people will love and enjoy using for generations to come. That means regulators, government planners, architects and project owners all working together with longer term vision. As part of this, we will also see rapid growth in repurposing older buildings, refitting their interiors, extending their useful lives.

Secondly, we talk a lot about recycling as being good for the environment. And we will see massive growth in recycling of building waste.  But we can go a lot further. 

The truth is that most recycling in our communities is down-cycling.  For example, plastic drinking bottles converted into lower-grade insulation products.  But closed-cycling is where those same plastic drinking bottles are collected, melted down and recast into new plastic bottles.  

Can we do similar things in construction?  Yes indeed....

Read more: Future of the Construction Industry, rush to Net Zero Carbon (NZC), Smart Buildings, Smart Cities, infrastructure, offsite-manufacturing, modular buildings, modern methods of construction, green tech innovation, changes in use after COVID. Keynote Speake

   

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