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Expect more health care innovation from 2045 - 2050 than in all human history

As a physician and a Futurist, I work with many of of the world's largest Pharma and MedTech companies, helping them develop next-generation treatments to improve human health and wellbeing.

Health care knowledge is doubling every 24 months, so we will know 32,000 times in 2048 than today more about how the human body works, why disease happens, how to detect early disease, how to treat illness effectively, and how to promote health. The growth of medical knowledge shows no signs of slowing down, indeed it is accelerating.  AI / Artificial Intelligence is driving much of this massive boost in speed of innovation and discovery.

Take for example the Human Genome Project. Back in 2001 it cost around $800m to decode or sequence most of the genetic code of just one human being. By 2006, the cost per genome sequence had already fallen to around $300,000.

Today, the same can be achieved for around $1000, using Illumina’s highest-end products, including reagents and an appropriate contribution to the capital cost of its machines. For example, the NovaSeq 6000 machine costs around $1m to buy. So how will this technology and 100,000 other innovations change future health care??

Interview for AESE Business School in Lisbon - about to give a keynote on global trends - 19th October 2017.  Here are major issues that are impacting very large numbers of companies across the world.  I usually group them as six factors that spell the word FUTURE, each of which forms one face of a cube.  The energy which spins the cube is EMOTION – reactions to events or trends are usually more important than events themselves.

“The world can change faster than you can hold a board meeting”, you said in a presentation. Among the hundreds of possibilities of change and innovation, what are the key trends do you foresee as having the most impact in business and personal life in this new World 4.0?"

29th September 2017

A lot of nonsense is talked about Brexit.  Here is the truth.

Sorting out all Brexit issues affecting the borders of Northern Ireland could take many years to fully resolve.  At the same time, the EU has made it clear that until a practical solution is agreed, even if such a solution is fine-tuned in future, discussions on a trade deal post-Brexit, will be on permanent hold.

There is a small chance that the entire Brexit process will be halted by a further vote in the UK, which could form part of an election manifesto commitment at the next election.  However this is becoming less likely at the moment, because opinion polls across the UK as a whole are more in favour of Brexit than when the original vote to leave took place.  (At the same time, paradoxically, opinion polls in other EU nations are becoming more positive about being part of the EU.)

For the purposes of this article, let us assume therefore that Brexit happens.

The EU has made absolutely 100% clear that they will not under any circumstances tolerate a breach anywhere in the EU wall controlling goods, services and movements of people across the border into the EU.  That is, unless