30 April 2009: WHO has raised the alert over Swine Flu to Level 5 - only one step short of a full pandemic.  Two days ago they announced Level 4 had been reached - the first time since the steps were introduced following Sars in 2003. Mexico's President Felipe Calderon announcing partial suspension of all non-essential work and services from 1 May to 5 May. He urged people to stay at home with their families during the shutdown. Swine Flu continues to spread around the world but while the number of suspected cases is rising rapidly, especially in Mexico, the number of cases with formal confirmation remains small.  What can we expect to happen next?  What are the real risks?

Our world is right on the brink of an unstoppable global pandemic - whether or not this occurs will probably become clear within the next 2-3 weeks.  Less than a week after first cases of severe flu were linked to a mutant Swine Flu virus, Swine Flu was confirmed in Mexico, US, UK, Spain, Israel,New Zealand with over 10 other nations reporting suspected cases.  Swine Flu has spread further and faster than Sars did in 2003 - a virus which caused massive business disruption and social chaos in some parts of the world for several months.   Fortunately, early indications are that those infected are responding well to antiviral therapy, plus treatment of secondary chest infections with antibiotics.  Since 1987 I have been predicting the great vulnerability of our world to new mutant viruses or mutations of existing ones.  Lessons from previous mutant viruses and global pandemics.

Here is the full press release on Swine Flu from the Lancet medical journal.  It highlights the vital role that governments need to take, and also how important it is that people with flu-like symptoms in affected countries stay at home and away from other people.  Those in the poorest nations will be most vulnerable.  Need to do all we can to slow spread even if pandemic looks inevitable in future, to win time to create a vaccine (6 months)

Comment in early days of Mexico Swine Flu epidemic in 2009: Research suggests that the virus causing Swine Flu (H1N1) may turn out to be quite similar to normal flu in mortality rates (1 in 1000).  This is based on a genetic analysis which shows that the virus has receptors which bind to the nose and upper airways, rather than to lung tissue.  This makes it more infectious but probably less dangerous for each person infected.  But these are early days.