Keynote speaker on global trends, author of 16 Futurist books - Patrick Dixon.

Future of the Travel Industry after COVID - THE PARTY HAS BEGUN, future of aviation beyond COVID, what next for tourism and business? Why the travel industry will be an engine of global economic growth. Travel industry keynote speaker at Seminarium event

Future of Travel Keynotes, Auto, Rail, Aviation

Futurist Keynote by Patrick Dixon at event for Seminarium in Chile

THE POST-COVID PARTY HAS BEGUN.  Update in July 2022 on this April 2021 travel industry forecast.  Paris is heaving with tourists, Barcelona the same, while many flights between Europe and the US are packed to bursting.

Along with manufacturing, retail and banking, the travel industry will be a fundamental engine of future globalisation, despite the huge impact of the COVID pandemic in 2020 and 2021 onwards. The reason is that human beings are genetically programmed to travel as hunter-gatherers, and have an irresistible urge to explore. (Written April 2021)

And as experience showed in 2020, whenever local, national or regional restrictions ease a little, huge numbers start booking trips almost immediately.  This will all be helped by global COVID passports - showing evidence of COVID infection in the past, or vaccination or very recent negative tests. Yes we can expect great debate about COVID passports: on the one hand COVID passports are a practical and common sense solution, allowing people who can prove they have immunity to travel or attend major events etc.  

Just as I predicted in April 2021, we are now seeing pent-up demand, as people look to spend more than usual on holidays using saved up budgets during lockdown.

Therefore, whatever happens in the current pandemic, to the global economy, or in other world events, in general terms over the next 30 years we can expect the number of people travelling each day to grow dramatically as wealth increases, and as real costs of transport continue to fall.

Consider this: 85% of humanity lives in emerging markets, and most people in the world are still dreaming of taking their first flight one day.The greatest growth in travel will be within Asia, and in people from Asia visiting outside their own region. We will see a rapid increase in the number and size of regional airports, high-speed rail networks, and new roads.

Read more: Future of the Travel Industry after COVID - THE PARTY HAS BEGUN, future of aviation beyond COVID, what next for tourism and business? Why the travel industry will be an engine of global economic growth. Travel industry keynote speaker at Seminarium event

 

COVID, Russia, Energy Crisis, inflation spike, interest rate rises - how many more shocks can we expect? What next? Interview with Futurist Patrick Dixon

Future Trends, Economy, Markets, Keynote Speaker

July 2022

First question: You warned many times over the last few years of the risks of a new viral pandemic.  What do you think will happen next with COVID?

Yes.  In The Future of Almost Everything for example, my 17th book published in 2019, I again warned of viral pandemic threats.  

On page 19, I wrote a list of Wild Cards - top of which was ""Viral plaque - rapidly spreading, cases in every nation".  Another on the list was "Miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict" - but that's another story.

I have been tracking many new mutant viruses for over three decades now and on average we see one every year, often emerging in the Far East for reasons we don't fully understand.

When I was 30 years old, my work caring for those dying of cancer at home was suddenly overwhelmed by people dying from a new mutant virus that appeared from nowhere, having jumped from animals into humans.  It was spreading fast, created massive fear and panic, with no vaccine or cure, and that virus has since killed 35 million people.

Over 30 years later, despite vast research efforts we still have no vaccine nor a cure.  

That virus was HIV, causing AIDS.  

And through the Foundation ACET (AIDS Care Education and Training) that begin in our own home in 1987, my wife and I are still involved in global efforts to slow down spread of that particular virus, and to mitigate its impact on the poorest and most vulnerable communities in nations such as Uganda, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, DR Congo, Thailand and India.

So I have always worried that we would see more mutant viruses appear from nowhere and go global.

Read more: COVID, Russia, Energy Crisis, inflation spike, interest rate rises - how many more shocks can we expect? What next? Interview with Futurist Patrick Dixon

 

Energy as a national security strategy. Added incentives to go green. Futurist view of Future of the energy industry, oil, gas, coal, solar and wind in a post-COVID world impacted by regional conflict

Future of Energy, Oil and Gas - Keynote speaker

Energy as a national security strategy – added incentives to build a carbon zero world 


What is the outlook for the energy industry for the next decade?  I have advised many of the largest green energy companies and traditional energy companies on the future. 


In “The Future of Almost Everything” published in 2019, I warned that unstable prices would create a lot of chaos in future for energy companies, and I was right. 


Energy forecasts always have to be seen in the context of the global economy, geopolitics, technology, innovation, urbanisation, migration and social transformation. 


I wrote in 2019 that we would be likely to see unstable oil prices with all kinds of supply and demand shocks, and prices ranging from above $180 to below $40. Just so. 


And I also wrote that these price convulsions would drive many green energy companies out of business, which is what is already happening. 


Every time energy prices fluctuate wildly, investors get scared about longer term value. 

Read more: Energy as a national security strategy. Added incentives to go green. Futurist view of Future of the energy industry, oil, gas, coal, solar and wind in a post-COVID world impacted by regional conflict

   

Future of Global Trade, Logistics and Supply Chain Management- agility and risk. Scandal of empty containers and boom in regional trade v global. Reducing supply chain risks and disruptions from more global events like the COVID pandemic - keynote speaker

Manufacturing, Logistics, Supply Chain Keynotes

Manufacturing 4.0 is not enough, nor the hyper-connected world of Manufacturing 5.0. We need agility, rapid innovation and dynamic responses to major disruptions in supply chains and global chaos. That means having contingencies, back up plans, alternatives.

Yet in many ways, despite recent shocks, the fundamentals of successful logistics and supply chain management are still changing relatively slowly. 

For example, before COVID, moving a container 150km by lorry from Birmingham to Southampton cost the same as moving the same container 10,000km by sea from Southampton to Beijing. It is cheaper to transport melons from Istanbul to Naples than to drive melons from a village up in the Italian mountains, to the same market.  This overwhelmingly huge difference in sea freight costs compared to roads will be one of the single greatest drivers of future global trade, over the next 30-50 years, despite increased energy costs. It is the primary reason why global trade has grown at twice the rate of global production over the last 30 years.

Now of course, we had huge supply and demand shocks during the COVID crisis, made worse by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with prices for a typical container journey rocketing from $800 to over $9000 in a few weeks.  These are short term issues, and market forces will bring these costs right down towards normal - simply because there is so much profit to be made by shippers at much higher costs, which means more investment, more competition.

Look out for trade growth in Latin America and Africa – both of which have huge manufacturing potential close to the sea. Areas with major container ports will on average grow up to 40% faster over the next three decades than cities, regions or nations that are landlocked.

Expect over $28 trillion a year of global trade by 2030, up from more than $18 trillion in 2019. Global trade will continue to grow around 25-35% faster on average than the entire global economy. For two decades, the use of shipping containers grew twice as fast as international trade, as companies seized the opportunity to be more efficient. But the container revolution is now complete, and so the growth difference will ease.

Read more: Future of Global Trade, Logistics and Supply Chain Management- agility and risk. Scandal of empty containers and boom in regional trade v global. Reducing supply chain risks and disruptions from more global events like the COVID pandemic - keynote speaker

 

Flying Taxis – Future of the Urban Air Mobility Revolution - electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) and related tech - future of aviation industry keynote speaker

Future of Travel Keynotes, Auto, Rail, Aviation

What is the future of flying taxis?  Many are asking questions relating to Urban Air Mobility, flying vehicles, electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and so on. Over more than two decades I have made many accurate predictions about the aviation industry - see elsewhere on this site.  And I have advised many global aviation companies including giants such as Airbus, Dassault Falcon and several airlines.  


More than 250 companies around the world are now investing in next-generation, low-cost, electric powered flying taxis. Most Urban Air Mobility companies are small startups that you have never heard of, while the largest aircraft manufacture are also innovating in this area. The top ten UAM startups have received over $6bn in funding over the last 5 years, with successful test flights over more than 150kms between charges.

Read more: Flying Taxis – Future of the Urban Air Mobility Revolution - electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) and related tech - future of aviation industry keynote speaker

   

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