What will be the longer term impact of COVID on the future of health care? People often say to me that the answer to new viral pandemics is to develop vaccines.  This is clearly nonsense since it takes months to develop a vaccine, months more to test, years to vaccinate the world at vast cost, and the vaccine itself may not produce long term immunity, or may be overtaken by new mutations.

That is why for two decades now I have been warning of the need to develop next-generation antivirals.

We still don't have a single antiviral today that is as powerful and effective as penicillin was against bacteria when first discovered over 80 years ago.

But one benefit of vaccines is buying us time to learn about new viruses so we can reduce death rates with better therapy.

Research falls mainly into three areas: antivirals, immune modulators and drugs to prevent blood clotting.  Here are some examples - this area of medical research is growing at astonishing speed..

* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including impact of AI on future of health care.

Video of virtual keynote at Stronger Event on key trends and their impact on Christian mission / future of the church.

Future of construction, and how the construction industry will respond to the climate emergency.

The construction industry is responsible for almost 40% of global CO2 emissions, taking into account the embodied energy in building (30%), energy wasted in demolition (10%), and costs of heating or cooling the building during it's lifetime (60%).

Look at the largest green building projects we have seen over the last decade or two, and multiply by ten or more over the next twenty years - in individual size and collectively.  

We need to be far bolder and more ambitious in ramping up decarbonisation of our world.  And at the same time expect massive steps to decarbonise construction.

Take for example the targets announced by the UK government in November 2020. 4 times current offshore wind capacity by 2030.  

First town heated entirely by hydrogen by 2030 with £500m investment. 600,000 heat pumps a year installed by 2030.  £1bn on carbon capture - and so on.  China will continue to dominate green tech investment globally.

There will be huge focus on creating smart, “carbon neutral” buildings that are ultra-efficient to heat or cool. 

But we will also see far more attention on how long those buildings will actually last.  My own home was built in 1842 and I expect will still be lived in by the year 2300.  

But I don’t know many commercial tower blocks or factories being built today that have a life-expectancy of more than 50 years - and many buildings being demolished today are less than 40 years old.

This really matters, because 30% of the entire energy consumed in the average life cycle of an office tower is the energy consumed in building it, and 10% more can be consumed in demolition.  

We need to see far more life-enhancing, iconic structures that people will love and enjoy using for generations to come. 

And also far greater efforts to convert, adapt, upgrade, renew, restore, repair and redesign existing buildings.

* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including impact of AI on construction, green tech innovation and reducing global CO2 emissions.

It’s not enough for the construction industry to deliver smart buildings that are ultra-efficient to heat or cool.  The construction industry also needs to focus on how long those buildings will actually last.  My own home was built in 1842 and I expect will still be lived in by the year 2300.  But I don’t know many commercial tower blocks or factories being built today that have a life-expectancy of more than 50 years - and many buildings being demolished today are less than 40 years old.

This really matters, because 30% of the entire energy consumed in the average life cycle of an office tower is the energy consumed in building it, and 10% more can be consumed in demolition.  

We need to see far more life-enhancing, iconic structures that people will love and enjoy using for generations to come. That means regulators, government planners, architects and project owners all working together with longer term vision. As part of this, we will also see rapid growth in repurposing older buildings, refitting their interiors, extending their useful lives.

Secondly, we talk a lot about recycling as being good for the environment. And we will see massive growth in recycling of building waste. But we can go a lot further. 

The truth is that most recycling in our communities is down-cycling.  For example, plastic drinking bottles converted into lower-grade insulation products.  But closed-cycling is where those same plastic drinking bottles are collected, melted down and recast into new plastic bottles.  

Can we do similar things in the construction industry?  Yes indeed....

* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including impact of AI on construction, green tech innovation and reducing global CO2 emissions.